Berlusconi's gambit

LATE last week, after a meeting with key members of his government and senior officers of his People of Freedom (PdL) party, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's prime minister, announced a five-point legislative programme he intends his administration to pursue once parliament reassembles early next month. Yet the government is no longer assured of a majority following the recent defection of a group of members of parliament allied to Gianfranco Fini, the speaker of the lower house and co-founder, with Mr Berlusconi, of the PdL. The government's survival may depend, in part, on the extent to which Mr Fini's supporters support Mr Berlusconi's programme.

Two of the five areas of the programme—a proposed simplification of the tax system and a crack-down on crime and illegal immigration—are likely to be welcomed by most Italians and should generate little fuss in parliament. The other three elements, however, aim to satisfy various special interests and may therefore prove more controversial.

One is a plan to tackle the longstanding problem of southern Italy's sluggish economic performance and high levels of unemployment, particularly among the young. The plan proposes the establishment of a regional bank, and a development of plans to build a bridge over the Strait of Messina, between Sicily and mainland Italy. Mr Berlusconi hopes to boost his standing with voters in the south, where centrist opposition parties, as well as Mr Fini, attract high levels of support.

To satisfy the Northern League, who govern in coalition with Mr Berlusconi's PdL, the prime minister's programme will grant the wealthy northern part of Italy greater fiscal autonomy. The Northern League is enjoying increasing popularity in its home territory and looks set to carve deeply into PdL’s support across the north should elections be held soon.

The fifth part of the programme, a set of changes to the justice system including major modifications to trial procedures, is highly controversial. The changes would allow Mr Berlusconi to avoid judgement in criminal trials in Milan where he is a defendant, one of which has already found his English lawyer, David Mills, guilty. Proposed changes in civil proceedings could also allow one of his companies to avoid paying substantial damages previously awarded by a lower court.

Mr Fini’s followers have said that they will support Mr Berlusconi’s government in a vote of confidence, but will not vote for legislation that did not form part of the platform on which the PdL came to power in 2008. The first four points of the five-point programme should thus enjoy the defectors’ support, but the fifth will not. Little wonder the prime minister looks anxious.

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